Institutional Risk Oracle & ACR

AnchorShield does not just measure stablecoin market prices. We provide a deep, algorithmically generated Anchor Confidence Ratio (ACR) that acts as an Operational Risk Registry for Stellar Anchors.

Our off-chain Watcher node continuously runs forensic analysis on Mainnet data to produce an institutional-grade risk score.

Live Data Endpoints

The Oracle tracks three major operational vectors by querying the official Stellar Mainnet and Anchor infrastructure directly.

1. Hot Wallet Solvency (Runway)

An Anchor requires a balance of native XLM in its operational hot wallets to pay for network transaction fees. If this balance hits zero, all fiat-to-crypto off-ramps freeze.

• Endpoint: GET https://horizon.stellar.org/accounts/{distributionAccount}
• Extraction: We parse the balances array and isolate the asset_type: "native" balance.
• Health Grading: The Oracle expects a minimum safe buffer of 5,000 XLM. If the balance is >= 5,000, the Hot Wallet Health score is 100.00% (10,000 bps). If it drops below this, the score degrades linearly (e.g., 25 XLM = 0.50% health).

2. On-Chain Refunds (The "Shadow" Default Rate)

To measure failed fiat off-ramps (e.g., KYC failures, frozen bank transfers), we track transactions where an Anchor sends USDC back to a retail user.

• Endpoint: GET https://horizon.stellar.org/accounts/{distributionAccount}/payments?order=desc&limit=200
• Extraction: We iterate over the last 200 payments. Any payment where the from field matches the Anchor's distribution account and is sending USDC to a user is flagged as an On-Chain Refund.

3. SEP-24 Infrastructure Uptime & Latency

• Endpoint: GET https://{anchor-domain}/.well-known/stellar.toml (To locate the TRANSFER_SERVER)
• Endpoint: GET {TRANSFER_SERVER}/info
• Extraction: We execute an HTTP ping every 60 seconds. A 200 OK response increases the SEP-24 Success rate. The round-trip time is recorded as the Avg Latency.

The Smart Contract Math (ACR Computation)

These data points are pushed on-chain via the update_anchor_metrics function. The Soroban smart contract then ruthlessly calculates the final Composite ACR score (measured from 0 to 10_000 basis points).

The mathematical gauntlet:

1. Base Score: Begins at a perfect 10,000 bps (100.00%).
2. Success Multiplier: Multiplied by the SEP-24 Success rate. score = (score * success_rate_bps) / 10,000
3. Latency Penalty: If average latency exceeds 120s, a penalty of -10 bps per second over limit is applied (capped at -2000 bps).
4. Refund Penalty (Crucial): For every single On-Chain Refund detected in the trailing window, a brutal penalty of -50 bps (-0.5%) is subtracted. score = score - (refundCount * 50)
5. Hot Wallet Multiplier: The remaining score is multiplied by the Hot Wallet Health percentage. If an Anchor's XLM gas tank is dangerously low (e.g. 1%), their ACR score will practically flatline. score = (score * hot_wallet_health_bps) / 10,000
6. Historical Volume Bonus: The contract awards a +1 bps bonus for every $10,000 in successful incoming USDC volume detected on the mainnet.

This transparent, ruthless algorithm ensures that Underwriters and Risk Managers can instantly detect an Anchor that is quietly experiencing operational failures before it triggers a massive stablecoin depeg.